Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 11.917175 13.382698 15.062349 17.154512 19.726501 22.834659 26.954999
2024-11-03 11.153414 13.241783 15.861504 19.489273 24.559969 31.706589 43.210244
2024-11-10 10.297622 12.662316 15.807626 20.492579 27.692167 39.179385 61.236588
2024-11-17 9.076502 11.380532 14.548425 19.473488 27.497528 41.387734 71.690162
2024-11-24 8.379438 10.703311 14.002238 19.353378 28.611442 46.117952 90.528920
2024-12-01 7.757645 10.052898 13.394018 19.001975 29.202228 50.042965 111.161311
2024-12-08 7.304288 9.594423 13.008450 18.931788 30.258446 55.359578 142.409973
2024-12-15 6.985278 9.299972 12.834289 19.178693 31.971748 63.018448 195.944506
2024-12-22 6.554655 8.799448 12.278410 18.659271 31.976834 66.356059 239.240419
2024-12-29 6.266420 8.494446 12.008311 18.620696 33.014262 73.213955 327.991928
2025-01-05 5.882338 8.013662 11.405545 17.874732 32.276483 74.293120 381.886439
2025-01-12 5.506522 7.525054 10.755666 16.969668 31.002796 73.124664 414.386359
2025-01-19 5.154697 7.071148 10.159764 16.163102 29.964748 72.917369 472.749676
2025-01-26 5.301252 7.423352 10.975434 18.293852 36.947957 109.740267 2652.854818
2025-02-02 5.242331 7.432478 11.184281 19.202948 41.089968 142.260813 126696.278926
2025-02-09 4.943563 7.022370 10.596303 18.279166 39.483078 140.392706 NaN
2025-02-16 4.773657 6.821086 10.380324 18.170125 40.430395 156.931153 NaN
2025-02-23 4.590827 6.588033 10.088220 17.850914 40.621787 169.116226 NaN
2025-03-02 4.452243 6.423676 9.914200 17.787122 41.678384 191.142784 NaN
2025-03-09 4.356437 6.327927 9.863680 18.011479 43.853838 230.731159 NaN
2025-03-16 4.189764 6.100576 9.543426 17.539322 43.318885 240.713493 NaN
2025-03-23 4.080821 5.969926 9.404506 17.504232 44.484164 277.439593 NaN
2025-03-30 3.910546 5.724165 9.025208 16.824936 42.913012 271.766596 NaN